California Lutheran University From Individual Decisions to Collective Outcomes

Three decision levels and a validation layer

Fig. 2 of the review as an interactive diagram. Select a level to see how the review defines it, how much evidence sits there, and where the review discusses it.

Decision levels and cross-cutting validation

Aggregation
Pipeline outputs are the orders others face
Decision rules enter pipelines as components

Level 1. Individual decision

Individual decisions refer to choices, estimates, forecasts, or advice elicited based on a specific prompt and instrument.

In Section 4: Individual financial behavior

Diagram text from Fig. 2; definitions quoted from Section 3.1; counts from Online Resource 1 (Fig. 3 rows; roles overlap).

Roles and the validation standard each implies

Agent roles imply different validation criteria. The human surrogate must reproduce relevant human behavior. A financial decision tool must demonstrate performance out of sample and net of relevant frictions. An AI economic participant must be accurately described, regardless of whether it resembles a human. An experimental instrument must stably measure the intended construct across different wordings, runs, and versions. A paper may claim several roles, but evidence meeting one standard need not meet another: profitable trades do not establish human fidelity, and a human-like answer does not establish stable measurement of a behavioral construct. These four roles correspond to four of the five claims in Section 8; the fifth, that the LLM component explains outcomes beyond simpler agent rules, can accompany any of them.

Human surrogate

Must match human behavior at the relevant level

93 primary studies coded with this role

Financial decision tool

Must perform out of sample, net of frictions

158 primary studies coded with this role

AI economic participant

Must be described accurately as configured and deployed

29 primary studies coded with this role

Experimental instrument

Must measure what it claims, stably across wordings, runs, and versions

73 primary studies coded with this role